про торговлю акциями вне России

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MZkE...um.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=71938&findnew

This is hilarious

 

Продал дозу путов на SPY Dec 2008 по 67 купленную год назад по 13.
Еще 5% вниз и буду крыть путы на XLF, шорты по REITs и строителям и брать длинные путы на TLT

 

мировая капа рынков сча 29.6 трила кста из них 10 американский

 

Миш, чек ПС плиз

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/19/business/economy/19ports.html?_r=1&em=&pagewanted=print

November 19, 2008
A Sea of Unwanted Imports
By MATT RICHTEL

LONG BEACH, Calif. — Gleaming new Mercedes cars roll one by one out of a huge container ship here and onto a pier. Ordinarily the cars would be loaded on trucks within hours, destined for dealerships around the country. But these are not ordinary times.

For now, the port itself is the destination. Unwelcome by dealers and buyers, thousands of cars worth tens of millions of dollars are being warehoused on increasingly crowded port property.

And for the first time, Mercedes-Benz, Toyota, and Nissan have each asked to lease space from the port for these orphan vehicles. They are turning dozens of acres of the nation’s second-largest container port into a parking lot, creating a vivid picture of a paralyzed auto business and an economy in peril.

“This is one way to look at the economy,” Art Wong, a spokesman for the port, said of the cars. “And it scares you to death.”

The backlog at the port is just part of a broader rise in the nation’s inventories, which were up 5.5 percent in September from a year earlier, according to the Commerce Department. The car industry has been hurt particularly, with sales down nearly 15 percent this year. General Motors has said it would run out of operating cash by the end of the year if it does not receive a government bailout.

But the inventory glut in Long Beach is not limited to imported cars. There has also been a sharp drop in demand for the port’s single largest export: recycled cardboard and paper products.

This material typically goes to China, where it is used to make boxes for new electronics and other products that are sent back to the United States. But Chinese factories reacting to sharply falling demand are slowing production, so they need less cardboard. Tons of paper are piling up recycling businesses around the port, the detritus of economies on hold.

Long Beach is an important port, particularly for the West. It is where imported products arrive and filter through the tributary of trucks, trains and retailers into the hands of consumers. But now, products are just sitting.

“We’re supposed to move things, not store them,” Mr. Wong said.

Roughly 20 percent of the nation’s container imports last year came through Long Beach, putting it close behind the largest container port, Los Angeles. This year, shipping volume at Long Beach is down 10 percent from 2007, and nearly all major ports around the country have seen similar declines. Veteran port workers say the slowdown since mid-October is like nothing they have ever seen. And it is having a cascading impact on other businesses and workers.

In the 150-acre terminal where Toyotas are unloaded, there is a sea of Corollas, Camrys and RAV4s. The mere presence of so many cars is not unusual, given that Toyota brings in 250,000 cars a year in biweekly shipments. But in a sign that something is amiss, dozens of tractor-trailers that transport new cars to dealers sat empty last week amid the rows of Toyotas.

Kurt Golledge, 48, was one of just two truckers loading his green, 75-foot-long hauler with cars last week. Mr. Golledge said eight of his colleagues were laid off this month because Toyota dealers did not want more deliveries.

“I was dropping cars in Henderson, Nev., about a month ago and the dealer told me: ‘Take ’em somewhere else and dump ’em,’ ” said Mr. Golledge, who works for a company called Allied Systems. “All the dealers are telling us the same thing.”

Auto dealers typically place orders with manufacturers months in advance, but they can modify their orders to receive fewer vehicles.

“The ships keep coming, but there’s nowhere for the cars to go,” Mr. Golledge said. He said he believed the vehicles he was loading would be his last before he was laid off, and he was already considering where he might find a new job.

While shipments for some items have slowed, the cars have kept coming in at their regular pace partly because the auto factories can take months to adjust to changes in demand. Toyota is wrapping up a deal to use six acres to park cars at the port, and is seeking more space.

“Toyota wants as much as we can give them,” said Gail Wasil, assistant director of the port’s real estate division.

For its part, Toyota says the higher-than-usual inventories at the Long Beach port are a result of shrinking demand, particularly in Southern California, which is one of its biggest markets. The company declined to say how many cars were at the port or how long they would be warehoused.

Toyota has adjusted its output to reflect falling demand, said Sona Iliffe-Moon, a Toyota spokeswoman.

Ms. Wasil said Nissan, whose cars arrive through the port of Los Angeles, sought a deal with Long Beach to park its overflow vehicles there. Mercedes struck a deal to use more acres just a few weeks ago, she said.

Officials from Mercedes and Nissan did not return calls seeking comment.

The mothballing of cars is nothing new for Detroit, where thousands of unwanted American-made cars have been parked over the last two years at Michigan’s state fairground and in lots at its airports.

It is more unusual to see a lot at the California port filled with thousands of unsold Mercedeses, most of them gathering dirt on the plastic white film that protects their hoods and trunks. Some appeared to have been stashed at the port for several months.

Last week, Mercedes delivered around 1,000 more cars to Long Beach on the Grus, a 580-foot container ship.

“A year ago, I was looking into buying one of these for my wife,” said Kurt Garland, the terminal manager overseeing the unloading of the white, silver and black sports cars, sport utility vehicles and sedans. “Now I’m not. I’m saving money, paying bills, hunkering down.”

Not far away, metal, cardboard, paper and plastic are piling up in the lot of Corridor Recycling. The company takes in refuse from around the country, then bales it for shipment to China. The cardboard is used to make new boxes while used shrink wrap is turned into shoe soles and insulation for sleeping bags and coats.

For much of this year, the company shipped about 25 containers a day, each filled with 23 tons of refuse to be recycled. But after the Olympics, demand slowed for recycled metal. In October, demand for everything else took a sharp downturn, and for the last two weeks the company has not shipped a single container.

“It just came to a complete stop. Absolutely a stop,” said Gilbert Dodson, the recycling company’s co-owner. “I’ve seen it slow over the last 25 years, but this is the worst,” he said of the current downturn.

Like his counterparts in the auto industry, Mr. Dodson is looking for extra space to accommodate the growing number of bales on his three-acre property. The recycled goods keep arriving in big trucks, even though he now pays only $21 a ton for refuse he paid $120 a ton for earlier this year, but there is nowhere for him to export.

“It keeps coming in,” he says. “But no one is buying.”

 

Жёсткое сегодня было закрытие, не ждал такого разворота. Мощное было открытие подкреплённое стремительным падением доллара, думал сегодня увидим под +10%, в итоге вполовину и в другую сторону.

Долго держались акции Бафета, но уже всё, летят со всеми и даже вырываются вперёд. Планировал селить их в начале ноября, видя слабую реакцию с их стороны на то что происходило на рынке и плюс его последние вложения, но не поднялась рука против маэстро.

 

Youtube video: US Completely bankrupt

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QDMtY06lzXM&NR=1

 

да уж
Citigroup Inc. slid 23 percent to $6.40, a 13-year low, on a plan to buy $17.4 billion of troubled investment-fund assets. General Motors Corp. tumbled 9.7 percent to its lowest price since the 1940s, while Ford Motor Co. lost 25 percent. Fourteen companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 20 percent or more as government data signaled the recession is deepening.

 

Шортить Буфета - верх циннизма

Berkshire's Credit Risk Soars on $37 Billion Bet (Update2)

By Erik Holm and Shannon D. Harrington

Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The cost of protecting against default by Warren Buffett's AAA rated Berkshire Hathaway Inc. has almost tripled in two months, a sign of just how skittish investors have become amid the global financial crisis.

The cost to protect against Berkshire being unable to meet its debt payments, based on credit-default swaps, is more than four times that of rival insurer Travelers Cos. At those levels, the swaps are typical of companies rated Baa3 by Moody's Investors Service, one level above junk. The price may have risen on concern that the billionaire's firm could lose a $37 billion bet on world stock market values more than a decade from now.

``That's just so stupid,'' said Mohnish Pabrai, head of Pabrai Investment Funds and a Berkshire shareholder. The swap buyers are projecting ``present circumstances into infinity'' and concluding Buffett's bet will cost the company $40 billion, Pabrai said. ``It will never happen,'' he said.

For the swaps to pay off, Berkshire would have to exhaust its $33.4 billion cash hoard, and Buffett's decades-long record as the world's most successful investor would have to come to a cataclysmic end. President-elect Barack Obama seeks him out for advice and the world's biggest firms, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and General Electric Co., turned to Berkshire for capital and the prestige that comes with Buffett's backing.

Buyers of default protection are being charged 1.45 percentage points more for Berkshire swaps than for insurance against Allstate Corp. Allstate last month had its credit grade cut by Fitch Ratings after hurricane claims and declines in its investments caused a $923 million third-quarter loss. Berkshire has remained profitable amid the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, and wouldn't pay out on its stock market bets, if it lost them, until at least 2019.

Unlikely Target

``If you were going to start picking companies that are going to default, you probably wouldn't put Berkshire at the top of the list, so it's totally unexpected to see them there,'' said Jeff Matthews, author of ``Pilgrimage to Warren Buffett's Omaha'' and founder of Greenwich, Connecticut-based hedge fund Ram Partners LP. Of the swaps, he said: ``I wouldn't buy them, and yet it's there.''

Standard & Poor's said Buffett's bet on the stock indexes wouldn't cause a liquidity crisis. Berkshire spokeswoman Jackie Wilson said she had passed along requests for comment to Buffett. The stock fell below $100,000 a share for the first time in two years last week and has dropped about 33 percent this year.

Buffett's Bets

The cost of protection on Berkshire debt has jumped to 415 basis points from 140 basis points two months ago, according to CMA Datavision. That translates to $415,000 a year to protect $10 million for five years. The median for companies rated Baa3 was 348 basis points yesterday, according to data from Moody's capital markets research group. Credit-default swaps, used to hedge against losses or to speculate on the ability of companies to repay their debt, rise as investor confidence deteriorates.

The increase may be tied to a series of bets that Buffett has taken on four stock indexes across the globe, including the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, according to Berkshire shareholders. Buffett sold contracts to undisclosed buyers for $4.85 billion that protect the buyers against declines in those markets.

Under the agreements, Berkshire will pay as much as $37 billion if, on specific dates beginning in 2019, the market indexes are below the point where they were when he made the agreements. By Sept. 30, Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire had written down the contracts by $6.73 billion as the S&P declined for a fourth straight quarter.

`Greater Gains'

``I believe these contracts, in aggregate, will be profitable,'' Buffett said in a statement in May, reiterating comments from his letter to shareholders in February. ``We are always ready to trade increased volatility in reported earnings in the short run for greater gains in net worth in the long run. That is our philosophy in derivatives as well.''

A total of 2,450 credit-default swaps had been sold on Berkshire as of Nov. 14, protecting a net amount of $4.7 billion, according to data from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corp., which runs a central registry for the derivatives.

Buyers of derivatives typically aren't disclosed, and representatives at 20 potential buyers including insurers and pension funds either didn't know who was involved or declined to respond.

Buyers of the credit-default swap protection on Berkshire may include the companies that stand to gain if Buffett loses on the stock bets, said Matthews. They may be hedging their gains against Berkshire by entering into separate agreements to ensure they recover some funds if Berkshire is unable to pay, he said.

`Mass Destruction'

The increase in perceived credit risk contradicts Buffett's record of building Berkshire over 40 years from a failing textile maker into a $145 billion company with businesses ranging from carpet making to utilities.

Buffett has at times decried derivatives as ``financial weapons of mass destruction'' and criticized their complexity and popularity. Berkshire hasn't disclosed which stock indexes besides the S&P are covered under the contracts or how they're structured.

Berkshire, which typically gets about half its profit from insurance, on Nov. 7 posted its fourth straight quarterly profit drop, the longest streak of declines in more than a decade, on hurricane costs and investment losses. Further declines in debt and equity markets reduced shareholders' equity, a measure of assets minus liabilities, by $9 billion in October, after the third quarter ended, the company said.

Berkshire's stock decline this year compares with a slide of 41 percent in the S&P 500. Berkshire shares rose in 17 of the past 20 years.

Not `Crazy'

Buffett may use the $4.85 billion paid to Berkshire in the derivative deals to buy stock or make acquisitions.

``Shareholders should rejoice that he was able to obtain that capital to invest on such attractive terms for years before the chance comes that he'll have to pay,'' said Tom Russo, a partner at Gardner Russo & Gardner, whose largest holding is Berkshire stock, in an interview this month. Still, he said, the increasing cost of Berkshire credit protection in the swaps market ``isn't crazy in light of the way the markets performed.''

American International Group Inc., the insurer that needed $150 billion from the U.S. government to stay afloat, nearly was forced into bankruptcy by derivatives. As credit rating firms lowered their grades on AIG, the New York-based firm was required to post collateral to show it could meet its obligations to the counterparties who took the opposite side on their bets.

No Collateral Damage

Berkshire may have to post collateral on some derivatives ``under certain circumstances, including a downgrade of its credit rating below specified levels,'' the firm said in a regulatory filing this month. Damien Magarelli, a credit analyst for Standard & Poor's in New York, said the losses are merely an ``accounting loss.''

``They've had no collateral requirements to date and the losses are not viewed by us as a cash loss,'' Magarelli said. ``It is not something that would be creating any type of liquidity issues or near term cash payments.''

Berkshire's AAA rating is the highest available. ``If Berkshire isn't triple A, I'm not sure which company would be,'' Buffett said in May.

To contact the reporters on this story: Erik Holm in New York at eholm2@bloomberg.net; Shannon D. Harrington in New York at sharrington6@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: November 18, 2008 17:32 EST

 

Пора забирать баблос из Сити в JPM

 

ИМХО старик Баффет здорово сдал за последнее время...и кажется пошел ва-банк

 

JPM и HSBC выглядят пока лучше конкурентов.

Больше всего мне не нравится сейчас Citi и RBS

 

Да он своей игрой в деривативы и продажей путов на индексы на самых хаях может убить всю компанию, когда потеря кеша поставит под вопрос его кредитный рейтинг. Там же основной бизнес - страхование и кредитный рейтинг и цена CDS - это все.

 

т.е. еще есть куда падать?
( к посту №2506)

 

Надо сначала отскок сделать хотя бы на 20%

 

Закрыл шорт Centex на 6.35, входил в среднем около 35.
Если будет отскок до ~10 снова зайду.

 

Посмотрел Centex, поражён тем, как можно было так долго держать. А из-за чего была выбрана именно это компания год назад на продажу?

 

Да я бы и до банкротства его держал, если б не перспектива попасть под раскулачивание 5% буржуев парткомом Обамы.
Centex брал вместе с Lennar (в районе 27 в среднем), но из Lennar меня брокер ссука выкинул на $9 после года в позиции когда их начали прижимать на naked shorts.
Они оба на тот момент были менее других перепроданы, но при этом несли существенные убытки уже. Еще было немного Toll Brothers, но эти держались лучше всех даже с минимальными прибылями и я их скинул с небольшим плюсом.

 

Это отрасль вся держится на волоске конечно.

А насчёт брокеров и вместе с Обамой. Не самый лучший вариант в плане надёжности, но посмотрите на английских брокеров, кто даёт возможность торговать контрактами на разницу(надёжность инструмента сама по себе низкая конечно). Но плюсы, что шорты почти без вопросов, самое главное здесь не облагается налогом вообще эти инструменты(Обама может отдохнуть). Компаний несколько и если рассредоточить между несколькими только часть портфеля, мне кажется не худшее решение.

 

Безусловно
Главная проблема с CFD для меня, это то что по ним хотят обычно достаточно жирные спреды по финансированию позиции. Если IB берет 25бп, то по CFD обычно 100-150, а учитывая плечо, то выходит в разы больше.
Ну и плюс - требования работодателя относительно брокеров. У меня одобренных всего 15, айби и америтрейд наверное самые беспроблемные...
Насчет налогов - до этого года размер портфеля подобный креатив и потенциальные расходы на адвокатов особо не позволял, но сейчас активно думаю.

 

Пробили интрадей дно 2002, рисуем 10-ти летние низы...

 

где ацкок

 

На адвокатов тратиться не нужно даже планировать, можно так всё продумать и как следует обмазговать, то есть суммы, которые уже пришли в Англию должны остаться в Англии-Россия-Европа. В штаты им путь закрыт будет, поэтому и написал не для всех средств, а часть портфеля. А так будет и проще налог платить ведь сумма потенциальной прибыли будет уменьшена, а демократы обычно с толстосумами борятся, повышая налог выше определённой отметки.

 

Рановато.. наоборот новая волна пошла вниз.
От 7100 будет...

 

http://ru.youtube.com/watch?v=dm2SYlwd8nY

 

Миша, что скажете?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=an3k2rZMNgDw&refer=home

 

а что тут добавить то ?

 

В сортире засор, его пытаются прочистить очередной порцией воды.

 

U.S. Stocks Advance for 4th Day, S&P’s Longest Streak Since May
прогресс нах)